Update on immigration : forecasts for Canada and Quebec
What are the key takeaways?
The main outlines of the new immigration forecasts for the coming years in Canada and Quebec are now known. They concern both temporary residents, permanent residents, and upcoming measures that will influence immigration policies.
At the federal level
The Government of Canada unveiled, in the 2025 federal budget presented on November 4, the key elements of the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan. This plan sets out the targets for admissions of temporary and permanent residents.
These new targets are detailed in the 2025 Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration, published shortly thereafter.
Temporary immigration
The federal government plans a significant reduction in the number of new temporary residents. Key points:
- 43% reduction of the targets for 2026 compared to the previous plan for that year;
- 25% reduction for 2027 and 2028 compared to the previous plan for 2027;
These reductions result in a 60% decrease in the number of new international students.
The reduction of the target for new temporary resident admissions compared to the previous Immigration Levels Plan is detailed below:
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | ||
| Previous Immigration Levels Plan for 2025–2027 (released in 2024) | Total | 673,650 | 516,600 | 543,600 | |
| Workers | 367,750 | 210,700 | 237,700 | ||
| Students | 305,900 | 305,900 | 305,900 | ||
| New Immigration Levels Plan for 2026–2028 (released in 2025) | Total | 385,000 | 370,000 | 370,000 | |
| Workers | 230,000 | 220,000 | 220,000 | ||
| Students | 155,000 | 150,000 | 150,000 |
Permanent immigration
The admission targets for new permanent residents are maintained at 380,000 per year for the 2026–2028 period. This decision reverses the previously planned decrease to 365,000 in 2027 under the 2024–2026 Immigration Levels Plan, and represents a reduction compared to the 2025 target of 395,000.
In parallel, a new measure aims to accelerate the transition to permanent residency: in 2026 and 2027, up to 33,000 workers holding a work permit may benefit from this initiative. Further details are expected.
Additionally, the share of economic immigration will increase from 59% to 64%. Note that Quebec sets its own thresholds for this category.
Economic immigration excludes family reunification, refugees and protected persons, and humanitarian or other considerations.
Francophone immigration outside Quebec
The admission target for French-speaking permanent residents outside Quebec, initially set at 6% for 2024, was expected to reach 8% by 2026 according to the 2024 report. Ultimately, this previous target was exceeded, reaching 7.2% in 2024.
Starting in 2026, the new targets for francophone immigrants outside Quebec will be set at 9%, then 9.5% in 2027, and 10.5% in 2028. This trend confirms Canada’s intention to attract more French-speaking immigrants outside La Belle Province (“the beautiful province”) and reaffirms the opportunities available to francophones through the Express Entry program.
At the provincial level
On November 6, the Government of Quebec presented and published La planification de l’immigration au Québec pour la période 2026-2029 (“Immigration Planning for the 2026–2029 period”). This plan outlines the objectives for admissions of both temporary and permanent residents.
Temporary immigration
The Government of Quebec plans to reduce the number of new temporary residents. Key point:
- 13% reduction of the targets for newly admitted workers and students, with 175,000 admissions expected by 2029 (compared to 200,500 in 2024).
This reduction aligns with the previously stated objectives for temporary immigration. Although the decrease is less significant, Quebec remains under federal jurisdiction for the number of non-permanent admissions.
The reduction in targets for new temporary resident admissions based on the number of valid permit holders as of December 31:
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 estimations | 2026 | 2029 | |
| Total | 178,200 | 200,495 | 175,700 (162,500 – 188,900) | 175,500 | 175,000 |
| Temporary Foreign Worker Program | 59,490 | 72,405 | 70,500 (65,200 – 75,800) | 69,100 | 65,000 |
| International Student Program | 118,710 | 128,090 | 105,200 (97,300 – 113,100) | 106,400 | 110,000 |
Extension of the moratorium in the Montreal and Laval regions:
It is still not possible to submit a Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) application for low-wage positions (under $34.62/hour) in the Montreal and Laval regions. The moratorium has been extended for an additional year, until December 31, 2026.
Permanent immigration
The admission targets for new permanent residents have been reduced to 45,000 per year. It is worth noting that 60,000 admissions are expected in 2025.
In the projected permanent admissions for the 2026–2029 period, the economic immigration category accounts for 28,800 admissions per year, including 28,275 admissions for Skilled Workers and 500 admissions for Business people.
The Quebec Experience Program (PEQ) will be abolished as of November 19, 2025. As a result, the Quebec Skilled Worker Selection Program (SWSP – PSTQ) becomes the sole pathway to permanent residency in Quebec.
More selective, the PSTQ operates on an invitation-based system, which creates uncertainty regarding access to permanent residency in the province.
For example: with equal profiles (same age, education level, years of experience, etc.), the place of residence (living in Montreal vs. in a region) influences the chances of receiving an invitation. That said, the program was only launched in July 2025, and it is currently difficult to determine with certainty which profiles have the highest chances.
New measure for the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP)
Starting December 17, 2028, temporary workers will be required to demonstrate oral proficiency in French after three years of residence (continuous or cumulative).
These plans are part of a series of restrictive immigration measures that have been gradually implemented over the past several months, in line with the government’s objectives to prioritize permanent residency in regional areas, support francophone immigration, and reduce the presence of temporary residents in the Montreal and Laval regions.
Conclusion
These measures, at both the federal and provincial levels, will have an impact on immigration procedures, particularly for temporary residents. As a result, these restrictions require thorough preparation of applications, both for employers and foreign workers.
Employers, if you currently have foreign workers on staff or are considering hiring, our professionals are available to support you at every step of the process.
Individuals, whether you are already in Canada or planning to settle here, our team is available to answer your questions and guide you based on your situation.
This article covers a recent immigration update. Last updated: November 11, 2025.